NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says St. Croix, St. Thomas and St. John remain in D3 Extreme Drought and that persistence is more likely than improvement through the end of December.
The federal outlook says September rainfall increased slightly but was not sufficient to move the islands out of D3. Forecasters also cited the lower chance of a tropical system delivering widespread heavy rain during what has been a quiet Atlantic season.
NOAA rates its confidence in the Virgin Islands forecast as low. The outlook describes the most likely seasonal direction, not a guarantee that significant rain will not occur or that conditions will worsen everywhere.
Extreme drought can stress cisterns, farms, vegetation and public water production even when individual showers provide temporary relief. Residents and businesses should continue conservation measures and use current WAPA and Department of Agriculture guidance for service or livestock needs.
The Climate Prediction Center plans to issue its next Seasonal Drought Outlook on October 15. The separate U.S. Drought Monitor may update local classifications before then as new rain and groundwater data become available.
The territorial government should maintain one drought dashboard with island-level rainfall, groundwater, cistern and farm impacts, public-water inventories, conservation requests and assistance programs, updated on a fixed schedule.
Source published September 17, 2026 outlook; verified September 19, 2026. Read the original reporting or release for the complete record.
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